Using Weather Index Insurance to Improve Drought Response for Famine Prevention
探讨了捐赠机构和运营机构如何利用天气指数保险来预防饥荒，列举了潜在收益，并以肯尼亚北部干旱地区为例说明了两种设计方案：基于降雨量的简单看跌期权和利用饥荒预测模型的触发机制。
How donors and operational agencies might use weather index insurance for famine prevention, enumerate key prospective benefits from such products, and then illustrates the possibilities with an application to the arid lands of northern Kenya has been outlined. Designing weather index insurance to facilitate financing of drought-related humanitarian response appears attractive. Two ways can be done. The first is a simple put option based on cumulative long rains and/or cumulative short rains-appropriately weighted across rainfall sites as a weather index. This may pay out some predetermined sum per mm shortfall of seasonal cumulative rainfall relative to a contractually established threshold at the end of the contract term for each season. The second design exploits the apparent ability to forecast famine based on rainfall several months ahead. One can use a validated forecasting model to establish the rainfall level below which the expected future prevalence of child wasting equals or exceeds 20%, thereby triggering indemnity payments under the insurance contract.