MODELLING THE PRICE OF OIL
综述了原油价格决定因素的建模问题，讨论了需求、OPEC与非OPEC国家供给及库存行为，并给出预测及对预测难点的结论。
This paper surveys the problem of modelling the determination of the price of crude oil. It discusses the need to define the price used and its relation to other related prices (such as the price of refined products). The factors determining the demand for oil, the supply of oil by OPEC and non-OPEC countries, and the behavior of stocks are discussed. Finally, some forecasts are presented and general conclusions are drawn on the difficulties of forecasting this series. Copyright 1991 by Oxford University Press.