STAGGERED PRICE CONTRACTS AND INFLATION PERSISTENCE: SOME GENERAL RESULTS*
研究基于理性预期的交错价格合同模型能否匹配实际通胀的持续性,发现模型能产生高自相关,但无法解释菲利普斯曲线回归中通胀对其滞后项的正向依赖,反而预测系数为负。
Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on staggered price contracts with rational expectations can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This article presents some general results about this class of models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced‐form Phillips‐curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative.