Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market
估计了一个包含价格有界变动和生产者理性预期的美国玉米市场模型，通过Fair和Taylor方法处理非线性理性预期约束，并与朴素预期均衡模型比较，证明有界价格模型更优。
A model that includes bounded price variation and rational expectations by producers is estimated for the U.S. corn market. The resulting model specification is highly nonlinear though, since the probability of market equilibrium must be determined endogenously. Unlike previous research, the cross-equation restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis are incorporated in the bounded prices model by using Fair and Taylor's (1983) procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear rational expectations models. The resulting model is compared against a standard equilibrium model with naive expectations. The results show the bounded prices model is a superior specification. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.