Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies
研究了公共债务在不损害财政偿付能力的情况下能有多高，通过随机主权违约模型发现政府存在财政疲劳，导致内生债务上限，并利用23个发达经济体1970-2007年的数据计算财政空间。
How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays ‘fiscal fatigue’, whereby its ability to increase primary balances cannot keep pace with rising debt. As a result, the government faces an endogenous debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. Using data for 23 advanced economies over the period 1970–2007, we find evidence of a fiscal reaction function with these features, and use it to compute ‘fiscal space’, defined as the difference between current debt ratios and the estimated debt limits.