Oral Interventions Versus Actual Interventions in FX Markets – an Event‐Study Approach
用事件研究方法评估口头干预（汇率沟通）是否有效，发现对欧元兑美元和美元兑日元汇率，口头和实际干预在短期至中期都很成功，且成功与市场条件和政策协调有关，与货币政策关系不大。
The article assesses whether exchange rate communication - or oral intervention - has been an effective policy tool for monetary authorities to influence exchange rates. It employs an event-study methodology that identifies intervention clusters or events. For the euro-dollar and the dollar-yen exchange rates, the article finds that both oral intervention events and actual intervention events have been highly successful over the short to medium-run. The article shows that the success of intervention events is related to market conditions and to the coordination among policy makers. It also finds that the success of communication and actual interventions is largely unrelated to monetary policy, thus suggesting that interventions primarily function through a coordination channel. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.