OPENING THE BLACK BOX: STRUCTURAL FACTOR MODELS WITH LARGE CROSS SECTIONS
展示了如何将大维动态因子模型用于结构分析,解决了结构向量自回归中难以处理的“基础性”问题,并提供了脉冲响应函数的一致估计量。对美国宏观数据的应用表明,该解法有重要的实证意义。
This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We argue that all identification schemes employed in structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis can be easily adapted in dynamic factor models. Moreover, the “problem of fundamentalness,” which is intractable in SVARs, can be solved, provided that the impulse-response functions are sufficiently heterogeneous. We provide consistent estimators for the impulse-response functions and for ( n , T ) rates of convergence. An exercise with U.S. macroeconomic data shows that our solution of the fundamentalness problem may have important empirical consequences.