Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy
利用美联储绿皮书预测数据，发现通胀和产出的可预测性有所提高，但不可预测性的下降幅度远小于波动性的下降，且产出和通胀波动的可预测成分几乎消失。
Several researchers have recently documented large reductions in economic volatility. But a more important question may be whether the economy has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find that inflation and output have become more predictable, though the results for output are somewhat mixed. The reductions in unpredictability (if any) are significantly smaller than reductions in volatility. Associated with this, the predictable component of fluctuations in output and inflation has virtually disappeared.