Binary choice under social interactions: an empirical study with and without subjective data on expectations
利用1996年美国总统选举调查数据，比较了理性期望模型与主观期望模型在解释社会互动下二元选择行为的表现，发现主观期望能更好拟合数据，且个体特征对期望形成有重要影响。
Abstract This paper examines two methods of modeling binary choice with social interactions: models assuming homogeneous rational expectations and models using subjective data on expectations. Exploiting a unique survey conducted during the 1996 US presidential election that was designed to study voting behavior under social context, we find that in various model specifications using subjective expectations consistently improves models' goodness‐of‐fit; and that subjective expectations are not rational as formulated by Brock and Durlauf. Specifically, members' characteristics are individually important in forming expectations. We also include correlated effect in the rational expectation model. This extension provides a remedy to the selection issues that often arise in social interaction models. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.