Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption
发现，在消费购买的季节性波动被纳入分析后，生命周期-永久收入模型并未被美国总量数据拒绝，参数估计合理且过度识别约束成立。
This paper examines a new possible explanation for the recent rejections of the life cycle-permanent income model of consumption: the treatment of seasonal fluctuations. The paper shows that when the seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases are included in an analysis of the life cycle-permanent income model, there is no evidence in the aggregate data against the model. The estimates of the parameters of agents' utility functions obtained with seasonally unadjusted data are plausible, and the unadjusted data do not reject the overidentifying restrictions on the model.