Judgment Error and Expert Critics in Forecasting Tasks*
提出一种方法，通过专家批评系统来获取和修正直觉预测，保留专家判断的有效部分并纠正偏差，并在实际应用中验证了该方法的有效性。
ABSTRACT This paper presents an approach to elicit and critique intuitive forecasts. It attempts to retain the valid component of experts' judgments while correcting some biases. Decision science and expert system techniques were unified with the design of an expert critiquing system. A real world application of the resulting critic verifies the approach. A discussion addresses how to create a similar critic for other forecast settings.