Why is Production More Volatile than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding
论证了企业面临需求不确定性和库存非负约束的模型能很好解释库存行为的宏观特征，并用汽车行业数据检验了缺货规避模型，结果支持该模型，同时发现生产平滑也有一定作用。
This paper argues that the macroeconomically interesting features of inventory behavior are well captured by a model in which firms face only demand uncertainty with a nonnegativity constraint on inventories. Empirical implications of the "stockout-avoidance" model of inventory behavior are derived and then tested on disaggregated automobile industry data. The results largely support the model, though they suggest a small role for production-smoothing as well. Subsidiary evidence on the relative variance of demand and cost shocks suggests that demand shocks are indeed more important.