Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: Comment
对Gramlich关于家庭通胀预期影响因素的实证研究提出质疑，利用其数据发现货币和财政政策对公众通胀预期无显著影响，但公众相信短期菲利普斯曲线。
In a recent issue of this journal Edward M. Gramlich reported the results of an empirical investigation of the factors influencing the inflation expectations of households as measured by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research (Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts, 15 [May 1983], 155-73). Using Gramlich's data (kindly supplied by JMCB), we show here that several of the conclusions reached in his paper cannot be substantiated. In particular, the inflation expectations of the public do not appear to be influenced by either monetary or fiscal policy while the data strongly suggest that the public does believe in a short-run Phillips curve. We present our findings in two parts. The first utilizes Gramlich's specification of the equation explaining household expectations of inflation, and the second utilizes an alternative specification of this equation.