A Framework for the Analysis of Error in Conjunctive, Multi‐Criteria, Satisficing Decision Processes*
研究了在采用合取规则的多准则满意决策中，评估误差和最低标准误差对决策正确性的影响，并开发了量化分析框架，适用于管理科学和运筹学领域。
ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of certain types of error on ad hoc, unstructured decision making that incorporates a satisficing strategy in a multi‐criteria context using the conjunctive rule. The impacts of error in evaluation and of error in minimal or satisficing levels are systematically modelled for each of the decision criteria. Error functions, analytical expressions, and procedures are developed to obtain information such as the likelihood of correct decision making in the presence of evaluation and minimal criteria level error. These are applied to a specific research design, which is then analyzed. This highlights certain features of decision making in a satisficing context, such as the importance of keeping the number of decision criteria to a minimum. The results yield various insights, some of which confirm information obtained from previous analyses. A major advantage of the framework presented is that it can provide quantitative measurements which support ideas previously couched in qualitative terms only. Although the framework is applied in the context of decision making that uses the conjunctive rule in the case of multiple criteria, other satisficing strategies can be accommodated as well.