Expectations of Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Duration
研究个人对失业保险政策变化的预期如何影响失业持续时间，发现人们有一定但非完全的预见能力，且假设完全预见比无预见更接近实际。
Over the years there have been frequent changes in unemployment insurance benefits. Such changes could influence spells in progress as well as future spells. If individuals anticipate changes, they are likely to adjust their behavior. The effect of changes in benefits on unemployment duration, therefore, will be difficult to predict accurately without accounting for individual expectations. This article investigates the extent to which individuals anticipate changes in unemployment insurance entitlement. The results suggest that individuals have significant, although not perfect, foresight about changes in unemployment insurance provisions. Assuming perfect foresight might represent actual expectations more closely than assuming no foresight. Copyright 1998 by University of Chicago Press.