Testing Game Theory in the Field: Swedish LUPI Lottery Games
利用瑞典最低唯一正整数（LUPI）游戏的实地和实验室数据，检验了博弈论在非受控环境下的预测能力，发现尽管存在偏离，但行为仍趋向均衡。
Game theory is usually difficult to test in the field because predictions typically depend sensitively on features that are not controlled or observed. We conduct one such test using both laboratory and field data from the Swedish lowest unique positive integer (LUPI) game. In this game, players pick positive integers and whoever chooses the lowest unique number wins. Equilibrium predictions are derived assuming Poisson distributed population uncertainty. The field and lab data show similar patterns. Despite various deviations from equilibrium, there is a surprising degree of convergence toward equilibrium. Some deviations can be rationalized by a cognitive hierarchy model.