Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking
从认知视角解释决策者为何既对风险过度谨慎（因忽视统计聚合效应）又对未来过度乐观（因采用内部视角），并探讨对组织决策的启示。
Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical aggregation in mitigating relative risk. Overly optimistic forecasts result from the adoption of an inside view of the problem, which anchors predictions on plans and scenarios. The conflicting biases are documented in psychological research. Possible implications for decision making in organizations are examined.