Professional Forecasters' Views of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP
利用蓝筹经济共识专业预测者的预测修正数据，建立不可观测成分模型，识别他们对GDP永久性和暂时性冲击的看法，发现约三分之二的当期修正方差归因于永久性冲击。
This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric models; see high-frequency indicators of economic activity as being informative about both permanent and transitory shocks; and react to incoming data differently during periods of economic weakness.