A Sequential Game Model of Sports Championship Series: Theory and Estimation
利用棒球、篮球和冰球数据，估计最佳N场冠军系列赛序贯博弈模型的参数，发现三支球队的战略效应可忽略不计，且控制常规赛记录后未观测到的异质性也很小。
Using data from professional baseball, basketball, and hockey, we estimate the parameters of a sequential game model of best-of-n championship series controlling for measured and unmeasured differences in team strength and bootstrapping the maximum-likelihood estimates to improve their small sample properties. We find negligible strategic effects in all three sports: teams play as well as possible in each game regardless of the game's importance in the series. We also estimate negligible unobserved heterogeneity after controlling for regular season records and past appearance in the championship series: Teams are estimated to be exactly as strong as they appear on paper. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology