Money and Capital in Economic Development: A Test of the McKinnon Hypothesis for Nepal: Note
基于尼泊尔数据检验麦金农假说，即发展中国家广义货币需求与实物资本需求互补，为理解欠发达国家金融与投资关系提供实证。
In an important book, McKinnon (1973) offered the hypothesis that in developing countries the demand for money broadly defined is complementary the demand for physical capital. The hypothesis is derived from an outside money model in which economic units are constrained self-finance and there are considerable indivisibilities in investment. A much-quoted empirical study by Fry (1978) and published in this journal contrasted the transmission mechanism in McKinnon's model with that of Shaw's (1973) debt-intermediation model. Using pooled data from ten Asian countries, Fry tested the demand for money functions implicit in each model and found that the evidence favored Shaw's approach. Fry conceded that his sample included countries in which financial development had proceeded such an advanced stage that modern financial assets other than broad money might be used as repositories of funds being accumulated for the purpose of eventual real investment. He concluded that it would be necessary to look much farther down the development ladder . . . some of the world's least developed countries in a search for (p. 474). Subsequently, Molho (1986) has stressed the intertemporal nature of complementarity argue that the McKinnon and Shaw approaches need not be considered mutually exclusive. This occurs because most projects are financed in part with own funds and in part from borrowed funds. Thus, there is contemporaneous substitutability between deposits and physical capital but intertemporal complementarity with current deposits intended finance future investment. While this may be a realistic adaption of the McKinnon model, as Fry (1988) points out, it requires the model be interpreted as an inside money model in which there are borrowing constraints and indivisibilities that prevent some investors from borrowing all they wish borrow for lumpy investments, and this is not consistent with McKinnon's own statement of his model. In this note, therefore, we report the results of a test of the complementarity hypothesis on data for Nepal,