Simulating the Impacts of Credit Policy and Fertilizer Subsidy on Central Luzon Rice Farms, the Philippines
用多期决策模型分析信贷政策和化肥补贴如何影响菲律宾水稻农场的投入选择、产量和收入，发现联合补贴使产量增加21%至30%，但制度市场的高违约率降低了信贷项目收益。
Abstract The effects of credit policy and fertilizer subsidy on farmers' input choices, production, and income are examined with a multiseason decision‐making model. Stochastic production technology, risk‐neutral and risk‐averse decision rules, short‐term savings/consumption behavior, and a dual financial market are considered. Results indicate the risk‐neutral rule is more consistent with actual choices than risk‐averse rules. Estimated yields increased 21% to 30% from joint credit and fertilizer subsidies. Benefits are greater on irrigated than on rainfed farms. A substantial default rate in the institutional market reduces credit program benefits.