Contractor Accreditation: A Probabilistic Model
针对企业选择承包商时的认证不确定性，提出一个概率模型，利用历史数据估计概率，帮助决定何时收集以及收集何种额外信息。
ABSTRACT The selection of competent contractors is a critical function in all business organizations. In contrast to other types of vendors (e.g., distributors, manufacturers, etc.), contractors are typically accredited before any business transaction takes place. In such situations, there is often a considerable amount of uncertainty associated with the accreditation process. This research presents a probabilistic model for accrediting contractors. We discuss a methodology in which probability measures are used to capture the uncertainty inherent in the decision process. These probabilities are estimated from data on (i) past applicants and (ii) their eventual performance, if accredited. Furthermore, these probabilities are used to determine when additional information about an applicant should be collected, as well as what kind of information would be most relevant for the vendor under consideration.