Were Financial Crises Predictable?
用概率模型和风险模型分析1914年前美国金融危机的性质，发现部分危机可预测且概率有季节性，但多数危机预测失败，说明危机并非同质。
This paper empirically investigates the nature of financial crises in the United States before 1914. It attempts to determine whether crises were statistically similar, predictable, and had a common generating mechanism. Using probit and hazard models and out-of-sample criteria, it is shown there are variables that explain movements in the probability of crises and that the probability of crises is seasonal. Two crises were predictable but in the other six episodes every forecasting model examined failed. These results suggest that financial crises were not all statistically alike and that their generation mechanisms differed. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.