Do Exchange Rates and Foreign Incomes Matter for Exports at the State Level?
研究发现，使用州级贸易权重构建的汇率和外国收入变量能显著影响美国各州制造业出口，且预测能力优于全国贸易权重变量。
At the national level, trade‐weighted real exchange rates and foreign incomes significantly impact exports. At the subnational level, these variables are generally insignificant in the few studies that include them. We argue that the standard use of national trade weights in the construction of subnational trade‐weighted averages of exchange rates and foreign incomes is inappropriate, and we then construct these variables using state‐specific trade weights. In our panel data analysis of state‐level manufacturing exports, these variables enter significantly and with the expected signs. Also, their out‐of‐sample forecasting ability is significantly better than that of the national trade‐weighted variables.