The Business Cycle at Various Stages of Process
构建并模拟了一个连接最终需求与中间制造的模型，发现早期制造品价格波动大于后期产品，主要源于库存和未完成订单的波动，且原材料库存比产成品库存更不稳定。
A model linking final demand (sales) with intermediate manufactures is estimated and simulated over the course of a business cycle. The results show that prices fluctuate more for early-stage manufactures than for later-stage products at the manufacturing and retail level. This is found to be largely due to inventory and unfilled orders fluctuations, particularly those of inventories of primary manufactured products held by finished goods manufacturers. Since these inventory fluctuations lead the cycle in final demand, prices of primary manufactures lead business activity. Another result is that inventories of materials and supplies, including those of retailers for resale, exhibit more instability than producers' inventories of finished goods.