Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach
分析了石油价格冲击与二战后美国商业周期波动的关系，发现油价变动虽影响低增长阶段的均值，但并非这些阶段的主要决定因素。
This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. The authors develop a generalized Markov switching model of output that includes a measure of net real oil price increases and examine the capabilities of this variable to generate shifts in the mean of GDP growth and to predict transitions between dichotomous growth phases. The results indicate that, while the behavior of oil prices has been a contributing factor to the mean of low growth phases of output, movements in oil prices generally have not been a principal determinant in the historical evidence of these phases. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.