An Estimation of the Hazard Rate of Firms Under Chapter 11 Protection
使用威布尔持续期模型，分析企业退出破产保护（第11章）的瞬时概率，发现破产保护本身会显著提高退出风险，而利息负担和行业产能利用率是重要影响因素。
The instantaneous probability (hazard rate) of a firm's exit from Chapter 11 protection is examined. Using the Weibull duration model, the effect of various regressors and the effect of the time a firm spends under Chapter 11 protection on this instantaneous probability is analyzed. I show that the hazard increases significantly under Chapter 11. Among the variables chosen, the interest burden of the firm and the capacity utilization of the firm's industry significantly increase the hazard. Other firm-specific variables like the long-term debt-to-assets ratio and the number of shares outstanding and economy wide variables, like the prime interest rate and the gross national product growth rate have no significant effect on the hazard. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.