High school completion and future youth unemployment: new evidence from High School and Beyond
利用高中及以后调查数据，通过贝叶斯估计方法分析义务教育对高中毕业和青年失业的影响，发现提高义务教育年龄能增加毕业率并减少失业时间，对弱势学生效果更显著。
Abstract In this paper, I provide new evidence from High School and Beyond (HSB) on the effects of compulsory attendance on high school completion and future youth unemployment. I develop Bayesian estimation approaches to the simultaneous equation model with ordered probit and two‐limit censored regression and the bivariate duration model, accounting for the heterogeneity in returns to education and the nonlinearity in the effects of compulsory attendance. I find substantial variability in returns to education across schools and evidence of diminishing marginal effects of compulsory attendance on high school completion. The simulation results suggest that increasing the compulsory attendance age raises the probability of completing high school and reduces the proportion of time the individuals are unemployed. These effects are much more pronounced for disadvantaged students but less pronounced for advantaged students, suggesting the potential effects of compulsory attendance on reducing the inequality in education and employment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.