Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange‐rate Forecasts
发现常见的技术交易信号（头肩形态）是导致汇率预测偏离理性的一个来源，基于1973至1994年日度美元汇率数据检验该形态的盈利性和效率，发现其虽能盈利但效率不高。
Substantial empirical research documents that exchange‐rate forecasts are not formed rationally. This paper identifies a common technical trading signal, the head‐and‐shoulders pattern, as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange‐rate forecasts. Forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994, using two criteria for rationality: profitability and efficiency. Resulting profits, replicable in real‐time, are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique. We find that the rule is profitable, but not efficient, since it is dominated by simpler trading rules.