动量收益的横截面与时间序列决定因素

Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Determinants of Momentum Returns

Review of Financial Studies · 2002
被引 275
人大 AFT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

检验了动量收益的来源,发现横截面预期收益差异几乎无法解释动量利润,而时间序列依赖才是关键,对理解市场有效性有重要参考价值。

Abstract

Portfolio strategies that buy stocks with high returns over the previous 3–12 months and sell stocks with low returns over this same time period perform well over the following 12 months. A recent article by Conrad and Kaul (1998) presents striking evidence suggesting that the momentum profits are attributable to cross-sectional differences in expected returns rather than to any time-series dependence in returns. This article shows that Conrad and Kaul reach this conclusion because they do not take into account the small sample biases in their tests and bootstrap experiments. Our unbiased empirical tests indicate that cross-sectional differences in expected returns explain very little, if any, of the momentum profits.

动量效应横截面差异时间序列依赖小样本偏差