The Evolution of Natural Resource Prices under Stochastic Investment Opportunities: An Intertemporal Asset-Pricing Approach
在技术不确定的经济中，将Hotelling规则转化为跨期资产定价方程，预测资源持有超额收益与人均消费变化率的协方差成正比，为检验Hotelling规则提供了框架。
The authors consider the competitive equilibrium of an economy with technological uncertainty in the production of a composite good and in the extraction of a nonrenewable natural resource. The familiar Hotelling-type rule takes the form of the intertemporal asset-pricing equation of portfolio theory. It characterizes the evolution of the resource price. In its so-called consumption-beta formulation, it predicts that the expected excess return to holding the resource in the ground is proportional to the covariance between the return to holding the resource and the rate of change of per capita consumption. This suggests a framework for testing the Hotelling rule. Copyright 1991 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.