Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of “Keynesian” Policies in 1930s' Britain
基于季度数据和国防新闻，估计两次世界大战期间英国的财政乘数在0.3到0.8之间，远低于以往估计，表明凯恩斯式解决方案对经济衰退的作用有限。
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and “defense news.” We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending.