The Demand for Money Under Rational Expectations of Inflation: FIML Estimates for Brazil
使用巴西数据，通过FIML方法估计理性预期下的货币需求函数，重点分析预期通胀作为持有货币的机会成本，对研究高通胀经济体的货币需求有参考价值。
Ever since the important contribution by Cagan [1956], a large part of the empirical literature on the demand, for money has been based on the experience of economies operating under highly inflationary conditions.2 At the theoretical level, it is'generally postulated that the amount of real money balances demanded by the public depends on the level of real income and on the opportunity cost of holding money relative to other assets and goods. The opportunity cost consists of the yield on alternative assets, measured by their expected rates of interest, and the return on holding goods, measured by the expected rate of inflation. Yet empirically, when studying economies with substantial inflation, most researchers have utilized the expected rate of as the only relevant opportunity cost of holding money. This particular specification can be, and has been, justified on the basis of at least two arguments: first,' in an inflationary environment, variations in the yields of other financial assets are likely to be dominated by variations in expected inflation.3 Second, the advent of high has been accompanied in many countries by governmental imposition of financial controls, which in fact limited the availability of financial -assets. In this case, the relevant substitution is between money and goods, or real assets, and it is captured'mostly by the expected rate of inflation. Expected inflation is generally an unobservable variable.' Therefore,' in order to implement empirically a money demand equation that includes this variable, an assumption about the formation of expectations is required. In the early literature on the subject, the common assumption was the one of adaptive expectations. As is well known by now, this assumption has at least two serious limitations: first, only information about past rates of is assumed to affect agents' expectations of current and future inflation; second, the adaptive formula is arbitrarily postulated, without paying explicit attention to the actual