QUANTITATIVE POLICY MODELLING IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
重新审视了政策建模的原则，对比了计量经济学与时间序列方法，讨论了模型规范、选择、管理、使用和传播，旨在改进农业经济学中的模型构建。
The paper reconsiders the topic of McClements' 1973 article on model‐building but does so in the particular context of policy modelling. Some principles are discussed, along with the relationship of the real world to its representation in a model built for a specific purpose. The assumptions and implications of the econometric and time‐series approaches to policy modelling are contrasted, and lessons drawn for model specification and selection. The management, use and dissemination of policy models are also discussed. It is hoped that the experience of the last ten or fifteen years will lead to model‐building in agricultural economics being better organised and more rewarding in future.