Forecasting the Penetration of a New Product—A Bayesian Approach
用贝叶斯方法预测新产品市场渗透率，结合已有产品或管理判断的先验信息，并用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛计算预测，以彩电渗透率预测为例说明。
We adopt a Bayesian approach to forecast the penetration of a new product into a market. We incorporate prior information from an existing product and/or management judgments into the data analysis. The penetration curve is assumed to be a nondecreasing function of time and may be under shape constraints. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods are proposed and used to compute the Bayesian forecasts. An example on forecasting the penetration of color television using the information from black-and-white television is provided. The models considered can also be used to address the general bioassay and reliability stress-testing problems.