Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment: Note
重新审视Gramlich（1983）的结论，发现虽然密歇根大学家庭调查的平均通胀预测比经济学家调查更准确，但典型家庭的预测远不如典型经济学家准确，家庭调查的表面优势完全源于其更大的样本量。
In a recent article in this Journal} Gramlich (1983) concluded that the mean inflation forecasts from the University of Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC) surveys of households were, in the years 1956-1980, more accurate and more rational than the mean inflation forecasts from Livingston's Philadelphia Inquirer surveys of professional economists. These paradoxical Elndings have proved robust with respect to improvements in testing procedures (Bryan and Gavin 1986a, 1 986b). The purpose of this note is not to cast doubt on the result themselves, but to urge caution in their interpretation. With respect to forecast accuracy, we show that while the average forecast from the SRC is indeed more accurate than the average forecast from the Livingston survey, the forecast of a typical household is much less accurate than that of a typical economist. The apparent superiority of the SRC survey is entirely due to its larger