An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks
研究偏好冲击如何在一个无跨期替代或不可分性的单部门随机最优增长模型中产生工时波动，并用美国战后数据验证模型能解释工时与生产率的负相关。
This paper investigates preference shocks, which may be interpreted as deriving from shocks to household production or changes in relative prices, as a mechanism for generating hours variation within a one-sector stochastic optimal growth model without intertemporal substitution or indivisibilities. Maximum likelihood estimates of the preference parameters are presented, along with statistics summarizing simulations of the estimated model. Comparison with post-war U.S. data shows that this model generates sufficient variation in hours relative to productivity, and in consumption relative to output, as well as predicting a negative correlation between hours and productivity.