Econometric implications of the government budget constraint
指出，现代宏观计量经济模型在政策分析中仍未能充分处理政府预算约束，且随着前瞻性行为的引入，错误处理该约束的后果更为严重。
Despite Christ's (1968) warnings, modern macroeconometric models for policy analysis still fail to treat the government budget constraint (GBC) adequately. I point out that the potential consequences of mistaken handling of the GBC become more severe as forward-looking behavior is incorporated in macroeconometric models. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, careful treatment of the GBC is shown to be a matter of primary importance even in models of the short and medium term.