A comparison among partial adjustment, rational expectations and error correction estimates of the canadian demand for money
从动态优化原理出发,推导并比较了三种流行的货币需求函数模型(部分调整/适应性预期、理性预期、误差修正机制),发现误差修正模型优于其他两种,但三者长期解相似,短期动态差异显著,对货币政策有重要启示。
Abstract Starting from a dynamic optimization principle, the currently most popular approaches to modelling money demand functions are derived. The partial adjustment/adaptive expectations, rational expectations, and error correction mechanism formulations are then estimated using a common data set. The error correction mechanism equation is found to dominate the others either because their implicit restrictions are rejected (rational expectations) or by employing the encompassing principle (partial adjustment/adaptive expectations). Surprisingly all three forms have similar long‐run solutions. Since the short‐run dynamics differ substantially, the results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.