Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment
构建了一个包含营销变量（特别是详细推销力度）和口碑效应的重复购买扩散模型，利用贝叶斯方法估计和更新参数，用于预测和控制新产品的销售速率，并制定上市策略。
This paper develops a model and an associated estimation procedure to forecast and control the rate of sales for a new product. A repeat-purchase diffusion model is developed, incorporating the effect of marketing variables—detailing force effects in particular—as well as a word-of-mouth effect. Bayesian estimation, with priors developed from past products is used to estimate and update the parameters of the model. The procedure is used to develop marketing policies for new product introduction.