Credit Crises, Money and Contractions: an historical view
结合历史叙事与计量方法，识别1875至2007年间重大信贷危机事件，分析其与货币政策传导的关系，并量化其对产出的影响，发现信贷危机会加剧经济衰退。
The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes an historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress arises as part of the transmission of monetary policy, and document the subsequent effect on output. Using turning points defined by the Harding-Pagan algorithm, we identify and compare the timing, duration, amplitude and co-movement of cycles in money, credit and output. Regressions show that financial distress events exacerbate business cycle downturns both in the 19th and 20th centuries and that a confluence of such events makes recessions even worse.