时间的脆弱性:时间不敏感性与远近未来的估值

The Fragility of Time: Time-Insensitivity and Valuation of the Near and Far Future

Management Science · 2007
被引 280 · 同刊同年前 10%
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

提出时间维度是脆弱的,即人们对时间不敏感,且这种敏感性易受操纵。通过四个实验,作者发现增加时间敏感性会降低近期折扣但增加远期折扣,而金钱维度则不受影响。

Abstract

We propose that the temporal dimension is fragile in that choices are insufficiently sensitive to it, and second, such sensitivity as exists is exceptionally malleable, unlike other dimensions such as money, which are attended by default. To test this, we axiomatize a “constant-sensitivity” discount function, and in four studies, we show that the degree of time-sensitivity is inadequate relative to the compound discounting norm, and strongly susceptible to manipulation. Time-sensitivity is increased by a comparative within-subject presentation (Experiment 1), direct instruction (Experiment 3), and provision of a visual cue for time duration (Experiment 4); time-sensitivity is decreased using a time pressure manipulation (Experiment 2). In each study, the sensitivity manipulation has an opposite effect on near-future and far-future valuations: Increased sensitivity decreases discounting in the near future and increases discounting in the far future. In contrast, such sensitivity manipulations have little effect on the money dimension.

时间敏感性跨期选择贴现函数未来时间感知