On dynamic arbitrage pricing and information: the case of the US broiler sector
研究了美国肉鸡市场中套利价格动态和预期形成，发现市场参与者存在异质性预期，大部分市场表现为幼稚预期，即根据最近价格预测未来价格。
The paper investigates the nature of arbitrage price dynamics and expectations formation in the US broiler market. The analysis provides evidence of heterogeneous expectations among market participants. A significant part of broiler pricing is found to be consistent with quasi-rational expectations where future prices are anticipated on the basis of their observed historical patterns. However, most of the market is found to be associated with naive expectations, where future prices are anticipated on the basis of the last observed price.