Explaining the Shakeout Process: A ‘Successive Submarkets’ Model
用一个跨子市场的扩散过程来解释新行业中同时发生的企业进入和退出，提出子市场激活由外生扩散过程决定，创新带来的沉没投资迫使进入后大量退出，从而在总市场形成震荡。
This article explains contemporaneous exit and entry in a new industry with a diffusion process across submarkets. It allows a re-interpretation of the shakeout process in some industries in a novel way. The industry is a collection of initially inactive independent submarkets; the timing of their activation is determined by an exogenous aggregate diffusion process. New submarket opening attracts new entry. However, the post-entry endogenous sunk investment requirement induced by innovations also forces much exit to follow entry. The aggregate market thus has overlapping exit and entry; and has a shakeout if the aggregate diffusion process follows a typical S-shape. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.