Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data
利用面板数据调整因劳动力进出产生的聚合与选择偏差，发现实际工资呈逆周期变动，但幅度小于以往微观数据估计。
New evidence on the correlation between the cycle and the real wage is provided by using panel data to adjust for the aggregation cum selectivity bias that arises when those who move in and out of the work force over the cycle have systematically different unobserved permanent and transitory wage components than those who do not. The results show that selectivity bias is present, for those with high transitory wages are more likely to lose employment, and that a true, compositio n-constant real wage index moves countercyclically, but less quantitatively than previous estimates using micro data have suggested. Copyright 1988 by University of Chicago Press.