Structure of Uncertainty and Decision Making: An Experimental Investigation*
通过实验室实验，研究了不确定性结构（概率分布的中心和范围）如何影响纳税人的故意不遵从决策，发现审计概率的均值和范围均显著影响行为，且范围效应在均值较高时更强。
ABSTRACT Decisions in the real world usually involve imprecise information or uncertainty about the precesses by which outcomes may be determined. This research reports the results of a laboratory experiment which examined whether the structure of uncertainty, namely, both the center and the range of the probability distribution describing the uncertainty, is an important determinant of choice. Specifically, it examines how the uncertainty of audit by the Internal Revenue Service of income tax returns affects taxpayers' decisions about intentional noncompliance. The context is relevant as almost nothing is known about how taxpayers assess detection risks using the probability information they have. The study focuses on intentional noncompliance. The factors affecting it are distinct and separate from those affecting unintentional noncompliance. Other factors that affect intentional tax noncompliance, such as risk, tax rates, and penalty rates, were controlled in the experiment. It was hypothesized that the lower the mean and the lesser the range (ambiguity) of the perceived audit probability, the greater the international noncompliance. As hypothesized, the analysis indicates that both the mean and the range of the perceived audit probability rate affect intentional noncompliance, though the effect of ambiguity is greater at a relatively higher level of mean. This result suggests that the strength of the information describing an uncertain event is captured better by both the mean and the range of the uncertainty than either of those components singly.