Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Drâa River in Morocco
研究了气候变化导致的水流分布变化对摩洛哥干旱地区灌溉和农场收入的影响，发现农民收入低于生存水平的概率将从2%上升到6%至15%。
Abstract Irrigation water is essential for agriculture in the arid Drâa River basin in Morocco but climate change leads to increasingly unreliable water supply in the area. This article analyzes impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income extending a conjunctive river basin model toward a stochastic modeling approach. Regional climate scenarios are used to derive a maximum likelihood density estimate of current and future water supplies. Based on these distributions, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain stochastic model results on surface and groundwater irrigation as well as economic indicators for six oases along the river. The probability of farmers to receive revenues below the subsistence level is around 2% under current conditions, but this is likely to rise to rates of 6% to 15% depending on the underlying climate change scenario. The composition of water sources for irrigation will shift to more groundwater use. The river basin model is able to represent complex spatial interactions between oases as well as a partial complementarity between groundwater and surface water irrigation due to salinity management effects. Interestingly, the value of groundwater is not necessarily increasing under future climatic conditions as salinity problems are aggravated with expanded groundwater use.