Processing Industry Capacity and the Welfare Effects of Sugar Policies
构建包含炼糖业特定资本的动态模型，发现相比静态模型，约20%的福利损失可能被错误归因于甘蔗生产者而非精炼商，而确定性与不确定性之间的差异并不重要。
Abstract Normally, analysis of policies affecting commodities such as sugar employs long‐run comparative statics under certainty and ignores processing industries like cane‐sugar refining, under the implicit assumption that the capital is malleable in both the short and long run. We present a dynamic model, calibrated to world sugar and solved with numerical dynamic programming, that includes the specific capital of the refining industry. When compared to an otherwise identical static model, the dynamic model suggests that some 20% of welfare losses may be misattributed to cane‐sugar producers instead of refiners. In contrast, the difference between certainty and uncertainty proves to be unimportant.