Evaluating the Likelihood of Default on Delinquent Loans
聚焦于逾期贷款管理，指出现有研究多关注授信决策，而忽视逾期后如何有效应对。作者认为需要识别与违约概率显著相关的逾期借款人或贷款特征，以改进决策。
N The literature on credit and default risk management [2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13] focuses primarily on the credit-granting decision. Yet, in managing loans and receivables, the point at which a loan becomes past due also requires a decision by the creditor. As summarized in [11], credit-granting decision models are often criticized for (i) using subjective methods for selecting customer attributes to be used in the model; (ii) relying on qualitative attributes; and (iii) relying on incomplete information (i.e., they are characterized by information asymmetry). Managing past due accounts presents similar problems; decision makers must choose among alternative responses, often relying on subjective judgment and incomplete information. Little research has focused on identifying delinquent borrower or loan attributes significantly related to the probability of default. Previous analyses of delinquencies used borrower information and contract terms when the loan was granted as explanatory variables [6, 8, 14]. The results provide insufficient information for choosing the most effective response to delinquent accounts.