Utility analysis for the probationary selection decision to obtain a fixed quota of successful selectees
将单队列试用期选拔框架扩展为多队列模型，推导了在需要固定数量成功员工时试用期选拔的效用公式，发现替换式选拔通常效用更高但净现值不一定更高，且传统框架会高估效用。
This article presents the extension of the one-cohort probationary selection (OCPS) framework (De Corte, 1994) to a multiple cohort model and shows how the extension can be applied to estimate the utility of probationary selection with replacement (PSWR) when a fixed quota of successfully performing selectees is required. Next, formulas to compute the net present value of the OCPS and the PSWR approach to the selection of a fixed quota of successful employees are derived. The equations indicate that the latter approach will usually lead to a higher utility, but not necessarily to a higher net present value of the predictor selected workforce. This finding, which is corroborated by the results of an example application, is of immediate practical relevance because it justifies the probationary selection with replacement practice that is adopted in many West European countries. Finally, the example results suggest also that the traditional Brogden–Cronbach–Gleser framework generally overestimates the incremental utility of using a predictor when the objective is to select a fixed quota of successful selectees. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.